Philip E. Tetlock

Quick Facts

Full Name	Philip E. Tetlock
Occupation	Psychologist
Date Of Birth	Mar 2, 1954(1954-03-02)
Age	70
Birthplace	Toronto
Country	United States
Birth City	Toronto
Horoscope	Capricorn

Philip E. Tetlock Biography

Philip E. Tetlock is one of the most popular and richest Psychologist who was born on March 2, 1954 in Toronto, Toronto, United States. Tetlock was born in 1954 in Toronto, Canada and completed his undergraduate work at the University of British Columbia and doctoral work at Yale University, obtaining his PhD in 1979.

In a 1985 essay, Tetlock proposed that accountability is a key concept for linking the individual levels of analysis to the social-system levels of analysis. Accountability binds people to collectivities by specifying who must answer to whom, for what, and under what ground rules. In his earlier work in this area, he showed that some forms of accountability can make humans more thoughtful and constructively self-critical (reducing the likelihood of biases or errors), whereas other forms of accountability can make us more rigid and defensive (mobilizing mental effort to defend previous positions and to criticize critics). In a 2009 essay, Tetlock argues that much is still unknown about how psychologically deep the effects of accountability run—for instance, whether it is or is not possible to check automatic or implicit association- based biases, a topic with legal implications for companies in employment discrimination class actions.

As a result of this work, he received the 2008 University of Louisville Grawemeyer Award for Ideas Improving World Order, as well as the 2006 Woodrow Wilson Award for best book published on government, politics, or international affairs and the Robert E. Lane Award for best book in political psychology, both from the American Political Science Association in 2005. The expert political judgment project also compared the accuracy track records of “foxes” and “hedgehogs” (two personality types identified in Isaiah Berlin’s 1950 essay “The Hedgehog and the Fox”). “Hedgehogs” performed less well, especially on long-term forecasts within the domain of their expertise.

Since 2011, Tetlock and his wife/research partner Barbara Mellers have been co-leaders of the Good Judgment Project (GJP), a research collaborative that emerged as the winner of the IARPA tournament. The original aim of the tournament was to improve geo-political and geo-economic forecasting. Illustrative questions include “What is the chance that a member will withdraw from the European Union by a target date?” or “What is the likelihood of naval clashes claiming over 10 lives in the East China Sea?” or “How likely is the head of state of Venezuela to resign by a target date?” The tournament challenged GJP and its competitors at other academic institutions to come up with innovative methods of recruiting gifted forecasters, methods of training forecasters in basic principles of probabilistic reasoning, methods of forming teams that are more than the sum of their individual parts and methods of developing aggregation algorithms that most effectively distill the wisdom of the crowd.

In his early work on good judgment, summarized in Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?, Tetlock conducted a set of small scale forecasting tournaments between 1984 and 2003. The forecasters were 284 experts from a variety of fields, including government officials, professors, journalists, and others, with many opinions, from Marxists to free-marketeers.

Philip E. Tetlock Net Worth

Philip E. Tetlock is one of the richest Psychologist from United States. According to our analysis, Wikipedia, Forbes & Business Insider, Philip E. Tetlock 's net worth $5 Million. (Last Update: December 11, 2023)

Philip E. Tetlock (born 1954) is a Canadian-American political science writer, and is currently the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania, where he is cross-appointed at the Wharton School and the School of Arts and Sciences. He was elected a Member of the American Philosophical Society in 2019.

He has served on the faculty of the University of California, Berkeley (1979–1995, assistant professor), the Ohio State University (the Burtt Endowed Chair in Psychology and Political Science, 1996–2001) and again at the University of California Berkeley (the Mitchell Endowed Chair at the Haas School of Business, 2002–2010). Since 2011, he has been the Annenberg University Professor at the University of Pennsylvania.

There is a tension, if not contradiction, between the positions taken in the Good Judgment Project and those that Tetlock took in his earlier book Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? (2005). The more pessimistic tone of Expert Political Judgment (2005) and optimistic tone of Superforecasting (2015) reflects less a shift in Tetlock’s views on the feasibility of forecasting than it does the different sources of data in the two projects. The Superforecasting book focused on shorter-range forecasts, the longest of which, about 12 months, being only as long as the shortest forecasts in the Expert Political Judgment project. Tetlock and Gardner (2015) also suggest that the public accountability of participants in the later IARPA tournament boosted performance. Apparently, “even the most opinionated hedgehogs become more circumspect” when they feel their accuracy will soon be compared to that of ideological rivals.

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Who is Philip E. Tetlock Dating?

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These findings were reported widely in the media and came to the attention of Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) inside the United States intelligence community—a fact that was partly responsible for the 2011 launch of a four-year geopolitical forecasting tournament that engaged tens of thousands of forecasters and drew over one million forecasts across roughly 500 questions of relevance to U.S. national security, broadly defined.

Facts & Trivia

Philip Ranked on the list of most popular Psychologist. Also ranked in the elit list of famous people born in United States. Philip E. Tetlock celebrates birthday on March 2 of every year.